Southampton vs Stoke
Championship, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
WWDDW
LLWWDThe score model made a Southampton win the most likely outcome at 61%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Southampton 1.98 – 0.93 Stoke.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 61.3% | 58.7% | +2.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.2% | 22.9% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Stoke win | 16.5% | 18.4% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.6% | 56.6% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.2% | 35.5% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | 54.8% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 38.3% | -4.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Southampton 38.8 / Stoke 56 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.