Birmingham vs Bristol City
Championship, England · 2026-08-22 · 13:30 CET
DWDDL
LDWWWThe score model made a Birmingham win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Birmingham 1.26 – 1.05 Bristol City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 40.5% | 53.3% | -12.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.4% | 25.5% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Bristol City win | 30.1% | 21.1% | +9.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.5% | 51.5% | -11.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.1% | 30.7% | -10.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.1% | 53.4% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.2% | 34.8% | +0.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Birmingham 41.2 / Bristol City 56 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.