Watford vs Southampton
Championship, England · 2026-08-16 · 14:30 CET
DDLLW
WWDDWThe score model made a Southampton win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Watford 1.21 – 1.73 Southampton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 26.2% | 27.8% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 27.0% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Southampton win | 49.0% | 45.2% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 54.2% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.8% | 33.3% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | 57.9% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.3% | 36.4% | -0.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Watford 55.8 / Southampton 38.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.