Norwich vs West Brom
Championship, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
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WWLDWThe score model made a Norwich win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Norwich 1.46 – 1.07 West Brom.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 45.6% | 48.3% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 27.2% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| West Brom win | 27.2% | 24.5% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% | 48.1% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% | 28.1% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 52.5% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.2% | 33.0% | +1.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Norwich 55.9 / West Brom 55.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.