Bristol City vs Millwall
Championship, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
LDWWW
WWLLWThe score model made a Bristol City win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bristol City 1.15 – 1.05 Millwall.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 37.5% | 36.7% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.2% | 28.4% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Millwall win | 32.2% | 34.8% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.7% | 48.7% | -11.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.0% | 28.3% | -10.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.9% | 54.8% | -9.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.4% | 33.1% | -9.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bristol City 55.8 / Millwall 57.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.