Modern Sport vs Ghazl El Mahallah
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-08-27 · 16:00 CET
LDWLW
WLLDLThe score model made a draw the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 25%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Modern Sport 0.90 – 0.83 Ghazl El Mahallah.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modern Sport win | 33.0% | 41.9% | -8.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 37.9% | 35.8% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Ghazl El Mahallah win | 29.1% | 22.3% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 53.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 24.9% | 28.4% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9.7% | 13.8% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 35.4% | 36.8% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 50.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 17.4% | 20.7% | -3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Modern Sport 38.2 / Ghazl El Mahallah 31.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.