Arab Contractors vs Al Masry
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-08-27 · 19:00 CET
DWLLW
LWWLLThe score model made an Al Masry win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arab Contractors 0.85 – 1.24 Al Masry.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arab Contractors win | 23.3% | 27.7% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 33.3% | 32.6% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Al Masry win | 43.4% | 39.7% | +3.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.9% | 34.9% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.0% | 17.7% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.8% | 42.7% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.9% | 24.8% | -3.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arab Contractors 32.4 / Al Masry 32.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.