Al Ahly vs Enppi
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-08-23 · 19:00 CET
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LLLLDThe score model made an Al Ahly win the most likely outcome at 63%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Ahly 1.85 – 0.72 Enppi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ahly win | 62.8% | 63.7% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 24.1% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Enppi win | 12.4% | 12.2% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.5% | 42.0% | +5.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.9% | 22.4% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.9% | 38.0% | +6.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.1% | 28.5% | +9.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Ahly 32.7 / Enppi 31.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.