El Gaish vs Arab Contractors
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
LWWLD
DWLLWThe score model made a draw the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 25%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: El Gaish 0.85 – 0.89 Arab Contractors.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Gaish win | 30.0% | 41.9% | -11.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 37.7% | 33.8% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Arab Contractors win | 32.3% | 24.3% | +8.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 53.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25.2% | 29.3% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9.8% | 14.2% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 35.6% | 36.9% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 54.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.3% | 21.4% | -1.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: El Gaish 37.4 / Arab Contractors 31.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.