Al Masry vs Smouha
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-08-22 · 19:00 CET
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LLDLLThe score model made an Al Masry win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Masry 1.22 – 0.86 Smouha.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Masry win | 42.4% | 46.5% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 33.5% | 31.1% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Smouha win | 24.1% | 22.4% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.4% | 36.3% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.7% | 18.4% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.5% | 42.2% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.0% | 24.8% | +1.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Masry 32.1 / Smouha 32 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.