Wadi Degla vs ZED
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-08-21 · 16:00 CET
WDWDL
DDLWLThe score model made a Wadi Degla win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wadi Degla 1.21 – 1.02 ZED.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wadi Degla win | 38.5% | 41.2% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 32.6% | 32.0% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| ZED win | 28.9% | 26.9% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.5% | 37.3% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.6% | 19.6% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.8% | 44.5% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.6% | 26.1% | +1.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wadi Degla 22.2 / ZED 34.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.