Viborg vs Nordsjaelland
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-09-20 · 18:00 CET
DWWLL
WLDDDThe score model made a Nordsjaelland win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 4:1 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Viborg 1.30 – 1.49 Nordsjaelland.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viborg win | 31.9% | 31.8% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 25.2% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Nordsjaelland win | 40.5% | 43.0% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 61.4% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 41.0% | -10.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | 63.6% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.4% | 42.6% | -5.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Viborg 36.6 / Nordsjaelland 36.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Viborg vs Nordsjaelland in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.