Lyngby vs Midtjylland
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-16 · 16:00 CET
LDLDW
DWDWDThe score model made a Midtjylland win the most likely outcome at 60%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lyngby 0.96 – 1.95 Midtjylland.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyngby win | 17.3% | 23.7% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 23.1% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Midtjylland win | 59.7% | 53.2% | +6.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% | 61.5% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.4% | 40.4% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 61.3% | -7.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 42.0% | -5.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lyngby 13.8 / Midtjylland 33.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.