Viborg vs Aarhus
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-14 · 19:00 CET
DWWWL
DLLDDThe score model made an Aarhus win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Viborg 1.14 – 1.65 Aarhus.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viborg win | 25.7% | 46.2% | -20.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.9% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Aarhus win | 48.3% | 27.9% | +20.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 60.2% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 39.5% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 62.6% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.1% | 40.8% | -2.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Viborg 34.5 / Aarhus 33.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.