Randers FC vs Lyngby
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-09 · 16:00 CET
WLLWW
LDLDWThe score model made a Randers FC win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Randers FC 1.21 – 1.03 Lyngby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randers FC win | 38.9% | 40.5% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.9% | 26.9% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Lyngby win | 30.2% | 32.6% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.8% | 55.9% | -17.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.8% | 34.7% | -15.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.2% | 59.5% | -13.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 37.8% | -6.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Randers FC 33.9 / Lyngby 13 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.