Sonderjyske vs Viborg
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-07 · 19:00 CET
LDWLW
LDWWLThe score model made a Viborg win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sonderjyske 1.47 – 1.54 Viborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonderjyske win | 35.6% | 25.3% | +10.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 23.9% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Viborg win | 38.7% | 50.8% | -12.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | 60.8% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.5% | 39.7% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | 61.4% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.9% | 41.6% | +2.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sonderjyske 29.4 / Viborg 34 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sonderjyske vs Viborg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.