Odense vs Sonderjyske
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-03 · 19:00 CET
LWDDW
LDWLWThe score model made an Odense win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Odense 1.66 – 1.48 Sonderjyske.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odense win | 41.4% | 44.3% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 26.5% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Sonderjyske win | 33.4% | 29.3% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% | 57.9% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.5% | 37.1% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | 61.0% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.0% | 39.4% | +4.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Odense 26.8 / Sonderjyske 28.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Odense vs Sonderjyske in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.