Lyngby vs Aarhus
Superliga, Denmark · 2026-08-01 · 18:00 CET
LDLDW
DLLDDThe score model made an Aarhus win the most likely outcome at 55%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lyngby 0.81 – 1.60 Aarhus.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyngby win | 17.8% | 31.3% | -13.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 27.0% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Aarhus win | 55.0% | 41.7% | +13.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.3% | 55.1% | -11.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.3% | 34.1% | -11.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.4% | 59.1% | -13.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.6% | 37.5% | -7.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lyngby 12.3 / Aarhus 33.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.