Hobro vs Esbjerg
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-11-07 · 13:30 CET
LDLDD
LDDWDThe score model makes a Hobro win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 66.7% vs 61.2% implied (+5.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hobro 1.44 – 1.40 Esbjerg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hobro win | 37.8% | 36.6% | +1.2% |
| Draw | 26.6% | 26.8% | -0.2% |
| Esbjerg win | 35.6% | 36.5% | -0.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | 56.4% | -2.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.7% | 35.8% | -4.1% |
| Both teams to score | 58.2% | 60.4% | -2.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 38.8% | -5.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Hobro 38.4 / Esbjerg 35.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hobro vs Esbjerg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.