Vejle vs Fredericia
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-11-06 · 18:00 CET
DDLWD
DDWWLThe score model makes a Fredericia win the most likely outcome at 37%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Fredericia win — 37.4% vs 32.6% implied (+4.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vejle 1.45 – 1.47 Fredericia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vejle win | 36.5% | 41.8% | -5.2% |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.6% | +0.4% |
| Fredericia win | 37.4% | 32.6% | +4.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.3% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.0% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Vejle 11.3 / Fredericia 19.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Vejle vs Fredericia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.