Koge vs Hobro
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-09-21 · 19:00 CET
DWWLD
DLDLDThe score model made a Hobro win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 5:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Koge 1.15 – 1.39 Hobro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koge win | 30.3% | 37.9% | -7.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.2% | 27.7% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Hobro win | 41.6% | 34.4% | +7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.7% | 50.0% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.1% | 29.0% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | 55.1% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.8% | 33.8% | -2.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Koge 36.6 / Hobro 36.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Koge vs Hobro in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.