Aalborg vs Vendsyssel
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-09-20 · 14:00 CET
DDDLL
DDLLDThe score model made an Aalborg win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aalborg 1.55 – 1.24 Vendsyssel.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aalborg win | 43.7% | 47.1% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 26.7% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Vendsyssel win | 29.8% | 26.2% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 52.4% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.7% | 31.6% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | 55.9% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.3% | 35.1% | +7.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aalborg 29.9 / Vendsyssel 17.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Aalborg vs Vendsyssel in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.