Kolding IF vs Hillerod
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-09-18 · 19:00 CET
DDDWL
WDLLWThe score model made a Hillerod win the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kolding IF 1.17 – 1.18 Hillerod.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kolding IF win | 35.1% | 50.3% | -15.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.2% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| Hillerod win | 35.3% | 24.4% | +10.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | 52.7% | -10.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.1% | 31.6% | -10.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | 54.9% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 36.3% | -7.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kolding IF 35.9 / Hillerod 36.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kolding IF vs Hillerod in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.