Hvidovre IF vs Esbjerg
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-08-09 · 13:00 CET
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LLLLLThe score model made a Hvidovre IF win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hvidovre IF 1.39 – 1.28 Esbjerg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hvidovre IF win | 40.0% | 38.6% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 27.3% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Esbjerg win | 34.9% | 34.1% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 54.5% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.8% | 33.9% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | 58.8% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 37.4% | -3.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hvidovre IF 30.8 / Esbjerg 29.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.