Aalborg vs Kolding IF
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-08-09 · 14:00 CET
DLLDW
DLDWLThe score model made an Aalborg win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aalborg 1.24 – 1.12 Kolding IF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aalborg win | 39.4% | 46.8% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 26.4% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Kolding IF win | 33.7% | 26.8% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.1% | 53.8% | -11.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.4% | 33.2% | -11.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 56.9% | -9.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.1% | 36.5% | -11.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aalborg 26.2 / Kolding IF 32.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.