Aarhus Fremad vs Koge
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-08-08 · 14:00 CET
WDDDW
LLDDDThe score model made an Aarhus Fremad win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aarhus Fremad 1.72 – 1.00 Koge.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus Fremad win | 54.7% | 54.7% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 24.4% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Koge win | 22.1% | 20.9% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.1% | 55.3% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.0% | 34.6% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | 56.0% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 37.8% | -5.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aarhus Fremad 23 / Koge 34 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.