Vendsyssel vs Hobro
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-08-02 · 14:00 CET
DLWWL
WWWLLThe score model made a Vendsyssel win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vendsyssel 1.44 – 1.32 Hobro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vendsyssel win | 40.3% | 39.6% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 27.7% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Hobro win | 34.9% | 32.7% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 52.4% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% | 31.8% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 57.3% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.6% | 36.0% | +2.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vendsyssel 12.2 / Hobro 33.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.