Hillerod vs Esbjerg
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-08-01 · 13:00 CET
LDLWD
LLLLLThe score model made a Hillerod win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hillerod 1.39 – 1.38 Esbjerg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hillerod win | 37.6% | 35.4% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 26.4% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Esbjerg win | 37.4% | 38.2% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 57.0% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 36.1% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 60.6% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.1% | 39.0% | -3.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hillerod 33.5 / Esbjerg 28.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.