Aarhus Fremad vs Aalborg
1st Division, Denmark · 2026-07-31 · 18:00 CET
WDDDW
DLLDWThe score model made an Aarhus Fremad win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aarhus Fremad 1.58 – 1.22 Aalborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus Fremad win | 46.2% | 40.2% | +6.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 26.5% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Aalborg win | 29.7% | 33.4% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 58.2% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.8% | 37.5% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 61.4% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 39.8% | -7.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aarhus Fremad 22.4 / Aalborg 25.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.