Vlasim vs Taborsko
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-20 · 16:30 CET
LWWWL
DLLDDThe score model made a Vlasim win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 4:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vlasim 1.30 – 1.16 Taborsko.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlasim win | 39.8% | 36.7% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 27.3% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Taborsko win | 33.3% | 36.0% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% | 53.5% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.3% | 32.9% | -9.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% | 58.2% | -8.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.3% | 36.3% | -1.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vlasim 41.2 / Taborsko 41.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Vlasim vs Taborsko in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.