Prostejov vs Dukla Prague
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-18 · 18:00 CET
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WDWLDThe score model made a Dukla Prague win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Prostejov 1.22 – 1.71 Dukla Prague.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prostejov win | 27.4% | 27.0% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.5% | 27.2% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| Dukla Prague win | 49.1% | 45.8% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 50.1% | +6.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.8% | 29.9% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | 53.9% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.8% | 34.2% | -2.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Prostejov 41.4 / Dukla Prague 13.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Prostejov vs Dukla Prague in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.