Vlasim vs Zizkov
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-07 · 18:00 CET
WDDLW
LLLLDThe score model made a Vlasim win the most likely outcome at 59%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 4:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vlasim 2.01 – 1.11 Zizkov.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlasim win | 58.6% | 48.3% | +10.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.6% | 25.9% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Zizkov win | 20.8% | 25.8% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.2% | 55.1% | +5.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.9% | 34.5% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | 57.7% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.5% | 37.6% | +0.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vlasim 39.1 / Zizkov 36.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.