Jihlava vs Pribram
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-07 · 17:45 CET
LWLLW
WDDWDThe score model made a Jihlava win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 30%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jihlava 1.02 – 0.91 Pribram.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jihlava win | 37.7% | 46.6% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.5% | 27.9% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Pribram win | 31.8% | 25.6% | +6.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.3% | 48.7% | -18.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.0% | 28.6% | -15.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.6% | 53.0% | -15.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.5% | 33.4% | -2.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jihlava 39 / Pribram 29.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.