Kromeriz vs Usti nad Labem
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-01 · 18:00 CET
LLLWD
DDWWDThe score model made an Usti nad Labem win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kromeriz 1.43 – 1.51 Usti nad Labem.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kromeriz win | 36.6% | 40.4% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.5% | 27.5% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Usti nad Labem win | 39.9% | 32.0% | +7.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | 52.8% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.0% | 32.4% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | 57.1% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 36.1% | +0.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kromeriz 26.1 / Usti nad Labem 21 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.