Zizkov vs Prostejov
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-07-31 · 17:00 CET
LLLLD
LDWLDThe score model made a Zizkov win the most likely outcome at 50%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zizkov 1.78 – 1.25 Prostejov.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zizkov win | 50.0% | 44.3% | +5.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.8% | 26.8% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Prostejov win | 27.2% | 28.9% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 53.0% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 32.5% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | 56.8% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.9% | 36.2% | +2.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zizkov 36.2 / Prostejov 38.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.