Pribram vs Opava
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-07-31 · 18:00 CET
WDDWD
DLDDLThe score model made a Pribram win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 29%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pribram 1.03 – 0.84 Opava.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pribram win | 39.6% | 39.7% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.3% | 28.6% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Opava win | 29.2% | 31.7% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 55.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28.8% | 47.6% | -18.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.0% | 27.7% | -15.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 36.2% | 53.1% | -16.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.8% | 32.7% | -1.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pribram 28.6 / Opava 38.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.