Liberec vs Bohemians
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
WDLLW
WLWWDThe score model makes a Liberec win the most likely outcome at 50%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 77.0% vs 67.5% implied (+9.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Liberec 1.52 – 0.92 Bohemians.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberec win | 50.2% | 58.4% | -8.2% |
| Draw | 28.1% | 24.2% | +3.9% |
| Bohemians win | 21.7% | 17.4% | +4.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.1% | 53.2% | -9.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.0% | 32.5% | -9.5% |
| Both teams to score | 48.1% | 52.4% | -4.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.8% | 36.7% | -6.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Liberec 43.8 / Bohemians 40.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Liberec vs Bohemians in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.