Hradec Kralove vs Sigma Olomouc
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
WLLDL
LDWDWThe score model makes a Hradec Kralove win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.9% vs 66.9% implied (+4.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hradec Kralove 1.38 – 1.30 Sigma Olomouc.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hradec Kralove win | 37.7% | 40.8% | -3.1% |
| Draw | 28.1% | 27.3% | +0.8% |
| Sigma Olomouc win | 34.2% | 31.9% | +2.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.1% | 53.9% | -3.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.1% | 33.1% | -4.9% |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 58.4% | -2.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 36.1% | -4.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Hradec Kralove 43.9 / Sigma Olomouc 43.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hradec Kralove vs Sigma Olomouc in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.