Brno vs Ostrava
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-11-07 · 18:00 CET
LLWDL
LLDLDThe score model makes a Brno win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 76.0% vs 67.6% implied (+8.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brno 1.40 – 1.09 Ostrava.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brno win | 42.8% | 44.0% | -1.2% |
| Draw | 29.0% | 27.4% | +1.6% |
| Ostrava win | 28.2% | 28.6% | -0.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | 52.5% | -7.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.0% | 32.4% | -8.4% |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 56.4% | -5.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.8% | 36.0% | -5.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Brno 13.1 / Ostrava 42.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Brno vs Ostrava in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.