Slavia Prague vs Plzen
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-20 · 18:00 CET
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LLWWLThe score model made a Slavia Prague win the most likely outcome at 63%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Slavia Prague 2.14 – 0.99 Plzen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Prague win | 62.7% | 60.9% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.5% | 22.3% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Plzen win | 15.7% | 16.8% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | 58.2% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.2% | 37.0% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | 54.9% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.9% | 39.4% | +8.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Slavia Prague 43.6 / Plzen 43.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Slavia Prague vs Plzen in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.