FK Pardubice vs Bohemians
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-19 · 15:00 CET
DWWLW
WLWWDThe score model made an FK Pardubice win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FK Pardubice 1.13 – 1.06 Bohemians.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Pardubice win | 36.0% | 46.4% | -10.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.4% | 26.0% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Bohemians win | 32.5% | 27.6% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.3% | 53.8% | -16.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.7% | 32.1% | -14.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.2% | 57.0% | -11.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.9% | 36.2% | -14.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FK Pardubice 40.6 / Bohemians 39.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FK Pardubice vs Bohemians in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.