Slavia Prague vs FK Pardubice
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-09 · 15:00 CET
WDDWW
LDLLDThe score model made a Slavia Prague win the most likely outcome at 80%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Slavia Prague 2.62 – 0.63 FK Pardubice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Prague win | 79.5% | 76.6% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 14.4% | 15.3% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| FK Pardubice win | 6.1% | 8.2% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | 63.1% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.8% | 42.2% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.6% | 46.8% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.9% | 42.9% | +1.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Slavia Prague 41.5 / FK Pardubice 38.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.