Hradec Kralove vs Ostrava
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-09 · 17:00 CET
WLLWD
LWWLLThe score model made a Hradec Kralove win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hradec Kralove 1.31 – 0.96 Ostrava.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hradec Kralove win | 43.6% | 41.2% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.1% | 28.8% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Ostrava win | 26.2% | 30.0% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.4% | 48.9% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.3% | 28.9% | -9.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.0% | 54.4% | -8.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.9% | 33.6% | -2.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hradec Kralove 41.5 / Ostrava 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.