Zlin vs Bohemians
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-08 · 17:00 CET
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DWDDLThe score model made a Zlin win the most likely outcome at 37%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zlin 1.27 – 1.18 Bohemians.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zlin win | 37.4% | 39.3% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.4% | 29.2% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Bohemians win | 33.2% | 31.5% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% | 45.8% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.3% | 25.6% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 51.9% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 31.9% | -0.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zlin 32.1 / Bohemians 38.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.