Teplice vs Plzen
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-08 · 17:00 CET
DLLWW
DWDWDThe score model made a Plzen win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 5:5 (HT 3:4) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Teplice 1.02 – 1.54 Plzen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teplice win | 24.2% | 22.9% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 26.3% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Plzen win | 48.3% | 50.8% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.2% | 49.5% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.6% | 28.9% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 51.9% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 33.7% | -0.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Teplice 41.6 / Plzen 41.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.