Mlada Boleslav vs Sparta Prague
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-08 · 20:00 CET
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LWWLLThe score model made a Sparta Prague win the most likely outcome at 57%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mlada Boleslav 1.21 – 2.08 Sparta Prague.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mlada Boleslav win | 20.9% | 23.8% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.5% | 24.6% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Sparta Prague win | 56.6% | 51.6% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.8% | 60.8% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.7% | 40.1% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | 61.5% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.4% | 41.5% | -1.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mlada Boleslav 41.6 / Sparta Prague 41.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.