Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-02 · 15:00 CET
WWWLW
DWDWWThe score model made a Sigma Olomouc win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sigma Olomouc 1.71 – 1.25 Mlada Boleslav.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sigma Olomouc win | 47.4% | 52.4% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 24.9% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Mlada Boleslav win | 27.0% | 22.7% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | 57.4% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.4% | 36.4% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 58.0% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.1% | 39.3% | -1.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sigma Olomouc 39.4 / Mlada Boleslav 41.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.