Varnsdorf vs Jablonec B
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-20 · 16:30 CET
DDWLW
LWWWWThe score model made a Varnsdorf win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Varnsdorf 1.86 – 1.56 Jablonec B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varnsdorf win | 44.6% | 51.9% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 23.7% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Jablonec B win | 32.3% | 24.4% | +7.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.6% | 63.6% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.8% | 44.2% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 67.2% | 64.3% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.7% | 44.6% | +1.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Varnsdorf 25 / Jablonec B 42.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Varnsdorf vs Jablonec B in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.