Brozany vs Neratovice
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-20 · 16:30 CET
LDLLL
LWWDWThe score model made a Brozany win the most likely outcome at 56%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brozany 1.91 – 1.07 Neratovice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brozany win | 56.4% | 46.7% | +9.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 25.6% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Neratovice win | 20.5% | 27.7% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.2% | 56.9% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.8% | 36.7% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | 59.5% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.7% | 39.4% | -5.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brozany 43 / Neratovice 25.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Brozany vs Neratovice in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.