Zapy vs Liberec B
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-16 · 17:00 CET
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LLDDLThe score model makes a Zapy win the most likely outcome at 72%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 77%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 63.3% vs 50.5% implied (+12.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zapy 2.88 – 1.19 Liberec B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zapy win | 71.9% | 73.2% | -1.2% |
| Draw | 15.3% | 15.8% | -0.5% |
| Liberec B win | 12.8% | 11.0% | +1.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.2% | 72.3% | +4.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58.0% | 52.8% | +5.2% |
| Both teams to score | 65.9% | 58.4% | +7.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 90.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 63.3% | 50.5% | +12.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zapy 41.2 / Liberec B 37.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.